Hybrid threats, strategic dependencies and sovereignty risks across the Amazon Basin, French Guiana and the South Atlantic.
A distinctive European vantage point to analyse geopolitical competition, hybrid threats and emerging strategic dependencies at the intersection of Europe, South America and the Amazon Basin.
Combining field experience, geopolitical analysis and proprietary frameworks to deliver decision-oriented insight and actionable recommendations.
Assessing geopolitical exposure, emerging vulnerabilities and strategic implications through multi-axis analysis and structured monitoring systems.
Mapping critical nodes, influence channels and structural dependencies to support prioritised, high-impact interventions.
Delivering concise, decision-oriented analysis with prioritised recommendations ranked by urgency, feasibility and expected impact.
Three original frameworks designed to translate complex hybrid dynamics into structured, decision-oriented insight and actionable recommendations.
Analyses how political, economic and criminal alignments shift under external pressure and internal fragmentation. Identifies emerging coalitions, dependency patterns and points of leverage in contested territories.
Output example: Alignment map / Influence coalition matrix
Assesses the capacity of states, territories or organisations to absorb geopolitical pressure, hybrid interference and strategic dependencies. Highlights institutional strengths, structural vulnerabilities and potential breaking points.
Output example: Resilience scorecard / Multi-axis vulnerability dashboard
Maps actors, networks, financial and logistical flows to reveal hidden exposure and influence channels. Supports identification of concentration risks and structural vulnerabilities often missed by classical assessments.
Output example: Dependency map / Prioritised action matrix (0-3 / 3-6 months)
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The frameworks are applied to produce structured analytical products for institutional and strategic clients. Deliverables typically include multi-axis monitoring systems, prioritised operational recommendations, and decision-support matrices.
Recommendations are ranked by urgency and feasibility (immediate / 0-3 months / 3-6 months), with clear ownership suggestions and measurable indicators wherever possible.
The approach prioritises clarity and usability for decision-makers operating under time pressure and incomplete information.
Illustrative examples of analytical outputs produced with the frameworks (anonymised).
Antoine Bachelin Sena is a French strategic risk analyst based in São Paulo since 2011, specialising in hybrid threats, strategic dependencies and sovereignty risks across Latin America.
His work focuses particularly on the Guiana Shield, French Guiana and the South Atlantic, where geopolitical competition, criminal networks, critical resources and institutional vulnerabilities converge.
Combining fifteen years of direct field experience in Brazil with a European perspective on sovereignty and state resilience, he analyses how state and non-state actors exploit jurisdictional asymmetries and strategic vulnerabilities.
He is the Founder & Director of Strategy of the Institut Atlantique Sud, developing research and advisory capabilities on French Guiana as Europe’s strategic frontier in the Amazon Basin.
Beyond public commentary, I provide structured analytical frameworks for institutional, corporate and strategic actors operating in high-risk environments across Latin America.
