01
Illicit Gold & Financial Flows
Mirror trade statistics, export discrepancies, trading routes, counterparties and jurisdictional gaps.
Antoine Bachelin Sena · Structural Risk Intelligence — Guiana Shield & South Atlantic
What actually moves between French Guiana, Suriname, Guyana and Brazil
— documented from primary records.
Briefs, diagnostics and ongoing monitoring for public institutions, compliance teams and mining operators. Fixed scope · Fixed fee · Defined delivery date.
Suriname gold exports in partner-country trade statistics, 2019–2025 · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22898437 · 10.5281/zenodo.23187372 · reported by De Ware Tijd (Paramaribo)
Published by CEBRI-Journal, The Brazilian Center for International Relations · CARI, Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales · Eixos, Brazilian energy news agency
Records compared across France, Brazil, Suriname and Guyana · ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8640-3130
01 — FOCUS · THE JURISDICTIONAL GAP
The same activity can look very different from one jurisdiction to another. A gold export, a mining title, a company or a financial transaction may be recorded differently depending on the system in which it appears.
That is where part of the risk lies.
I compare the records, follow discrepancies across jurisdictions, and establish what can — and cannot — be demonstrated.
01 Territory
02 Legal Title
03 Trade
04 Finance
05 Ownership
06 Dependency
07 Exposure
02 — WHAT I INVESTIGATE
02
Mining Titles & Jurisdictional Risk
Mining rights, cadastral records, overlapping claims and cross-border territorial exposure.
03
Critical Minerals & Strategic Dependencies
Supply chains, processing capacity, industrial dependencies and strategic links.
04
Maritime & Sovereignty Risk
Guyane bleue, Amazônia Azul, maritime jurisdictions and strategic space in the South Atlantic.
03 — METHOD
I work from primary sources wherever possible: official registries, cadastral records, trade statistics, legal documents and institutional records.
Each assessment distinguishes between established facts, inferences, working hypotheses and information that cannot be established from the available material.
Data gaps and conflicting records are documented rather than hidden.
Primary sources
Official registries, cadastral records, trade statistics, legal documents and institutional records wherever available.
Source status
Clear separation between established facts, inferences, working hypotheses and information that cannot be established.
Cross-jurisdiction comparison
Records are compared across France, Brazil, Suriname and Guyana rather than read in isolation.
Limits stated
Missing data, conflicting records and unresolved ambiguities are identified explicitly.
04 — CURRENT RESEARCH
An ongoing body of research examining how cross-border activity is recorded across the Guiana Shield. Each release states its sources, data and method. Full publication list and identifiers on ORCID.
Suriname Gold Mirror-Trade Monitor
Destination Unspecified: Suriname's Gold Exports in Partner-Country Trade Statistics, 2019–2025
The Missing Partner: UAE National Statistics and the Mirror of Suriname's Gold Exports, 2019–2025
Pre-registration No. 1: Three Registries, Two Rivers. A spatial comparison of French, Brazilian and Surinamese mining-title registries along the Maroni–Lawa and Oyapock
Guyane bleue / Amazônia Azul — espaces maritimes comparés
Who measures conversion: testability, blindness and the missing denominator in Brazil’s critical-minerals doctrine
Kloof van 12,6 ton in Surinames goudexportcijfers (A 12.6-tonne gap in Suriname's gold export figures)
Quem vai escrever o denominador da política de minerais críticos
Brazil-Argentina Critical Minerals Cooperation: Lessons from ABACC
Hacia una autonomía estratégica regional: la alianza Brasil-Argentina en minerales críticos y el Atlántico Sur
05 — WHO I WORK WITH
Government, Defence & Public Institutions
What is happening on the other side of the Maroni and the Oyapock?
Gold, mining titles, maritime jurisdiction, critical minerals.
Mining & Energy Operators
Who is already around your licence, before first gold or first oil?
Neighbouring titles, illegal mining, the border.
Gold Chain & Compliance Teams (refiners, assurance providers, banks)
What do partner-country statistics say about the gold declared to you?
Mirror trade statistics, trading routes, opaque counterparties.
Investors & Financial Institutions
What will Brazil's critical-minerals policy make measurable, and when?
Law 15.506 and its implementing rules, industrial dependencies, jurisdictional risk.
06 — OUTPUTS
Each engagement starts from a specific question and is scoped before substantive work begins.
Strategic Intelligence Brief
A focused assessment built around one defined question.
Strategic Vulnerability Assessment
A deeper examination of cross-border exposure, dependencies and relevant scenarios.
Cross-Border Risk Diagnostic
A short initial assessment to determine whether a larger investigation is warranted.
Ongoing Monitoring
Periodic tracking of a defined set of indicators, actors or developments.
Fixed scope · Fixed fee · Defined delivery date
07 — ABOUT
Antoine Bachelin Sena is a French analyst based in São Paulo, Brazil, since 2011, and Director of Strategy at the Institut Atlantique Sud.
His work focuses on cross-border risk across the Guiana Shield and the South Atlantic, with particular attention to illicit gold flows, mining rights, critical minerals and maritime jurisdiction.
He works across French, Portuguese, Spanish and English sources, comparing legal, administrative and statistical records across France, Brazil, Suriname and Guyana.
Working languages: French · Portuguese · Spanish · English. ORCID 0009-0004-8640-3130 · SSRN.
CONTACT & TERMS
Confidentiality applies to client work. The method remains stated openly.
Format
Each engagement begins from a specific decision question, established in a scoping call at no fee and with no commitment.
Typical engagement
Written scope, primary-source mapping, analysis, scenarios and defined recommendations — typically four to eight weeks depending on scope.
Pricing
Fixed fee against a written scope. Indicative fee ranges are provided in the Practice Note, on request.
Confidentiality
Signed agreement before substantive exchange. Discretion on client matters; no proprietary claim over the general method.
Ownership
The agreed deliverable is assigned to the client. Models, data series and method remain the property of the author unless otherwise agreed in writing.
Not undertaken
Legal or financial due diligenceCompliance auditLobbyingCommunicationsInvestigation of private individualsPre-specified conclusions
abs@antoinebachelinsena.com · São Paulo, Brazil · Replies within two working days.